12 Days of Fire Did Israel or Iran Win the War
On June 24, 2025, a tenuous ceasefire brokered by U.S. President Donald Trump took effect between Israel and Iran, halting a 12-day conflict that began on June 11 with Israel’s preemptive airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and military facilities. The war, marked by Israel’s audacious Operation Rising Lion and Iran’s retaliatory Operation True Promise 3, has left the Middle East in a state of uncertainty, with questions about the ceasefire’s durability and the strategic gains for both sides.
This article analyzes the conflict’s origins, outcomes, and implications for Israel, Iran, the United States, and the region, drawing on open-source reports, expert analyses, official statements, and regional perspectives.
The Trigger: Israel’s Preemptive Strike
The conflict ignited on June 11, 2025, when Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, a coordinated air campaign targeting Iran’s nuclear sites, military bases, and key personnel. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) deployed over 200 fighter jets, dropping 330 munitions on roughly 100 targets, including the Natanz nuclear facility, Arak heavy water reactor, and missile production sites. The Mossad reportedly sabotaged Iran’s air defenses, enabling temporary air superiority for Israeli aircraft.
Israel justified the strikes as a necessary preemptive action to counter Iran’s alleged nuclear weapons pursuit, citing a June 10 International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report flagging Iran’s non-compliance with nuclear obligations for the first time in two decades. However, IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi clarified, “There is no evidence of a systematic push toward a nuclear weapon,” raising questions about the threat’s immediacy. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu framed the operation as critical to Israel’s survival, targeting “the core” of Iran’s nuclear program.
Iran responded with Operation True Promise 3, launching over 300 ballistic missiles and hundreds of drones in multiple waves against Israeli military sites and cities. Some penetrated Israel’s Iron Dome and Arrow missile defense systems, causing civilian casualties and damaging infrastructure, including a hospital in Beersheba and residential areas in Tel Aviv.
The conflict escalated on June 19 when the United States, after days of deliberation, joined Israel in striking three Iranian nuclear sites—Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan—with B-2 stealth bombers. President Trump claimed the sites were “totally destroyed,” though U.S. officials later noted that damage assessments remained uncertain. Iran retaliated with a missile strike on the U.S. Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, prompting Trump to broker a ceasefire on June 23, effective the following day.
“The Islamic Republic of Iran has achieved a great victory by ending this aggression through its resilience and strength. Our forces have shown the world that any attack on our sovereignty will face severe consequences, and we remain committed to defending our nation’s rights and dignity.”
- Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on June 24, 2025
The Ceasefire: Fragile Truce or Lasting Peace?
The ceasefire, mediated by Qatar and announced on June 23, took effect on June 24 at 7:30 a.m. Iranian time, with Israel confirming compliance at noon. Early violations, including Iranian missile launches and an Israeli strike on an Iranian radar site near Tehran, underscored the truce’s fragility, but both sides signaled a willingness to de-escalate.
Trump’s mediation was decisive, with reports indicating Netanyahu curtailed planned strikes after a call with the U.S. president. Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, while critical of the ceasefire’s terms, accepted it to avoid further escalation. However, Israeli military chief Eyal Zamir warned that operations against Iran were “paused, not ended,” with a shift in focus to Gaza and Lebanon.
“We’ve stopped a dangerous escalation in the Middle East. Iran won’t have a nuclear weapon, and Israel is safe. I told both sides to stand down, and they listened. This is a win for peace, but we’ll keep watching closely.”
- US President Donald Trump
The ceasefire’s longevity remains uncertain. Both sides accused each other of violations, and analysts suggest its stability depends on whether Israel and Iran perceive it as aligning with their strategic goals. The conflict’s short duration indicates neither was prepared for a prolonged war, but unresolved issues—particularly Iran’s nuclear program and Israel’s security concerns—persist.
Who Gained What?
Israel: Tactical Gains, Strategic Challenges
Israel achieved tactical successes. Its airstrikes damaged Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, notably Natanz, where an estimated 15,000 centrifuges were impaired, and Arak, though Iran reported no radiation leaks. The IDF assassinated key Iranian figures, including Major-General Ali Shadmani and Quds Force official Mohammed Said Izadi, disrupting Iran’s military leadership. The Mossad’s sabotage of Iran’s air defenses highlighted Israel’s covert prowess.
Strategically, however, the gains are ambiguous. Analysts contend that Israel’s strikes did not cripple Iran’s nuclear program, which is decentralized and resilient. The Fordow facility, buried deep underground, likely survived U.S. strikes, and Iran’s nuclear know-how remains intact. Israel’s missile interceptors were stretched thin, with estimates suggesting only 10-12 days of sustainability without U.S. resupply.
Domestically, the war strengthened Netanyahu’s position, with even critics like Yair Lapid acknowledging tactical achievements. Yet, the conflict disrupted Israel’s economy, closing schools, businesses, and Ben Gurion International Airport, exacerbating the strain from ongoing conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon. Civilian losses—24 deaths and 685 injuries—and infrastructure damage highlighted the war’s cost.
Iran: Resilience Despite Setbacks
Iran suffered significant losses but demonstrated endurance. Its nuclear sites, particularly Natanz and Arak, were damaged, and the loss of key personnel disrupted operations. Its air defenses proved vulnerable, allowing Israel temporary air superiority. Civilian casualties were high, with 639 deaths, including 224 civilians, and over 1,200 injuries reported.
Nevertheless, Iran’s missile strikes showcased its ballistic capabilities, penetrating Israel’s defenses and hitting targets like a hospital and an oil refinery near Haifa. The regime’s decentralized structure and technological resilience suggest recovery is feasible, though rebuilding missile facilities will be arduous.
Politically, the war unified Iranians around the regime, despite internal dissent. Khamenei, reportedly operating from a bunker, faced criticism but retained control, with no immediate succession crisis. Iran’s refusal to negotiate under duress and its symbolic strike on Al Udeid signaled defiance, though its ceasefire acceptance reflected pragmatism.
United States: Ally and Mediator
The U.S. balanced its role as Israel’s ally with ceasefire mediation. Its June 19 strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites reinforced Trump’s commitment to preventing a nuclear-armed Iran. However, the intervention divided his base, with isolationists like Tucker Carlson opposing involvement and hawks like Senator Lindsey Graham endorsing it. Public opinion was mixed, with 53% of Trump voters opposing U.S. action.
Trump framed the ceasefire as a diplomatic success, but critics, including Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, condemned the strikes as unauthorized by Congress. The U.S. avoided deeper involvement but faced international criticism from China, Russia, and Latin American nations, who argued the strikes violated international law.
Regional and Global Ramifications
The war intensified regional tensions. Iranian proxies, such as Yemen’s Houthis, fired missiles at Israel, while Iraqi militias threatened U.S. bases. Global oil markets fluctuated, with prices surging 10% before dropping 7% post-ceasefire, reflecting relief at averting a wider crisis.
European mediation efforts, including Geneva talks, were overshadowed by U.S. diplomacy, highlighting Europe’s limited influence. Russia and China urged de-escalation but avoided direct involvement, with Russian President Vladimir Putin noting that Russia’s partnership with Iran lacked a defense clause.
Is the War Truly Over?
The ceasefire is a temporary reprieve, not a resolution. Israel’s goal of eliminating Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities remains unmet, as Iran retains sufficient enriched uranium and expertise to rebuild. Iran’s pledge of “severe punishment” and its retaliatory strikes suggest potential for renewed hostilities. The ceasefire’s success depends on diplomatic progress, but Iran’s refusal to negotiate under pressure and Israel’s insistence on dismantling Iran’s nuclear program leave little common ground.
The war exposed vulnerabilities: Israel’s limited missile interceptors and economic strain, and Iran’s weak air defenses and personnel losses. It also underscored the U.S.’s critical but controversial role, with Trump’s intervention averting a broader conflict but failing to resolve underlying tensions.
Conclusion: A Costly Stalemate?
Neither side secured a decisive victory. Israel degraded Iran’s nuclear and military capabilities but fell short of neutralizing the threat, incurring significant costs. Iran withstood the assault, retaliated effectively, and preserved its regime, but its losses will hinder its regional influence. The U.S. reinforced its alliance with Israel but risked alienating allies and domestic support. The region remains volatile, with the ceasefire offering a slim window for diplomacy—if mutual distrust can be overcome.
The 12-day war underscores the Middle East’s fragility and the limits of military solutions to entrenched geopolitical challenges. Whether the truce endures or collapses will shape the region’s trajectory, with the risk of renewed conflict ever-present.